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08-Jan-2018 22:23

The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see

So, if one thinks there are big revisions coming in payroll employment (plausible), and perhaps in GDP (also plausible), then — to quote Jim — “the latest GDP numbers do not prove that we’re out of the woods yet.” [1] On that note, I leave you with a picture of the annualized growth rate (in log terms) of real GDP, as indicated in May 2001 (blue) and as of May 2006 (red), retrieved from the Philadelphia Fed’s realtime database.

Yesterday, Jim presented his latest estimates of the recession probability [1].



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